- Perform data analysis using Regression analysis, run regression with excel,test for fitness- R2 R and fisher
- Test for significance: state the hypothesis at 5% level of significance
- Predict sales using moving average 2 or 3 period
- Test for accuracy using MAD
_{2}MAD_{3} - Compare and draw conclusions
- Two independent methodsof forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10months.

The forecasts and actula sales are as follows:

Regression Statistics

1)ANOVA

2)3)

4)

MAD = 140,979 / 12 = 11748.25

Compare and Conclusion

5)

a)

b)

Mean Absolute Deviation = 1.7

Running Sum of forecast error = 7

Tracking Signal = 4.12

Formula's : Mean Absolute Deviation = sum( | Er | ) / No of Obs = 17 /10 =1.7

Running Sum of forecast error = Sum( Er) = 7

Tracking Signal : Running Sum of forecast error / Mean Absolute Deviation = 7 / 1.7 = 4.12

**Answer : Since 4.12 is greater than 4 hence their is Bias**

Mean Absolute Deviation = 2

Running Sum of forecast error = 7

Tracking Signal = 3.50

mean = 778.7

SD = 778.7

Control limit =778.7+10.83*2 = 800.36

mean = 779.2

Sd = 10.99

Control limit =779.2+10.99*2 = 801.18